India: US Trade Deal May Boost Exports by $100 Billion Annually

Indian exporters could raise exports of the top 15 items by $97 billion annually to the United States under the US-India trade deal, with total potential exceeding $100 billion including other items.

The US has an annual import potential of over $50 billion from India (excluding services).

India’s trade surplus with the US was $40.9 billion in FY25 and $26 billion during April–December, and could cross $90 billion annually after the deal.

The agreement may add nearly 1.1% to India’s GDP, with indirect forex savings of about $3 billion due to zero or reduced US import duties (higher with import substitution).

The US accounts for nearly 20% of India’s exports and close to 7% of imports, while in some commodities its share is 20–40%, likely to rise further with tariff reductions.