Asia-Pacific Fitch Sees Slower Growth and Higher Debt Pressures in 2026

Fitch expects most APAC sovereigns to keep sufficient buffers in 2026, despite higher US tariffs and weaker Chinese demand.

China’s growth is set to slow to 4.1% in 2026 from 4.8% in 2025.

APAC’s median debt will rise to 50.1% of GDP in 2026, up from 49.1% in 2025 and 46.8% in 2024.

Fiscal consolidation will stay modest, though about half of APAC may see better fiscal balances.

Most sovereigns have Stable Outlooks, with Thailand the only one on a Negative Outlook.